The Poll Numbers That Have Pennsylvania Democrats Talking
The Poll Numbers That Have Pennsylvania Democrats Talking
If Fetterman's rhetoric has been provocative, the polling data behind it has been just as striking — and arguably more consequential for his political future.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted July 9-13 and released July 15 surveyed 895 registered Pennsylvania voters and found Fetterman's overall approval rating standing at 48 percent, technically still above water, with 41 percent disapproving and 11 percent undecided. But the topline number masks a dramatic partisan inversion underneath. Among Pennsylvania Republicans, 77 percent approved of Fetterman's job performance, with only 12 percent disapproving. Among Democrats, the numbers essentially reversed: just 19 percent approved, while 69 percent disapproved.
To put that shift in context, the same polling operation found that Fetterman's approval among Democrats had been as high as 80 percent barely a year earlier, while his approval among Republicans had sat at just 16 percent, with 75 percent disapproving. In other words, over roughly twelve months, Fetterman's standing with the two parties didn't just shift — it essentially flipped in its entirety. Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy summarized the dynamic bluntly: "The Democrats would like to show him the door. The Republicans seem to be welcoming him in. Thus is the political irony of Senator John Fetterman."
The poll also asked voters directly whether they'd like to see Fetterman leave the Democratic Party altogether. A majority, 52 percent, said yes — including 57 percent of Democrats and, somewhat surprisingly, 55 percent of Republicans, suggesting that even voters who currently approve of his job performance aren't necessarily interested in claiming him as one of their own. Only 31 percent of all respondents said they'd like to see him remain a Democrat.
Perhaps the most eye-catching detail buried in the data: Fetterman's approval rating among Pennsylvania Republicans (77 percent) actually exceeds Republican Senator Dave McCormick's own approval rating among members of his own party (68 percent) — meaning the Democratic senator is, at least by this measure, currently more popular with Republican voters than the state's actual sitting Republican senator.
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The numbers have not been lost on potential Democratic primary challengers. Political observers have floated several names as possible contenders for a 2028 Senate primary against Fetterman, including U.S. Representatives Brendan Boyle and Chris Deluzio, along with former Representative Conor Lamb, who lost the 2022 Democratic Senate primary to Fetterman himself. None have announced a campaign, and Democratic Party leadership has so far taken what several outlets describe as a hands-off approach, but the speculation itself underscores how precarious Fetterman's standing with his own base has become.
Fetterman has publicly acknowledged that Republicans have approached him about the possibility of switching parties, though he has declined to detail those "private conversations," according to reporting from the Washington Examiner. He has also pushed back forcefully on the idea that a party switch is imminent, at one point joking that he'd "be a terrible Republican" given how many traditionally progressive positions he still holds. Whether voters believe that denial, in light of everything else happening around him this summer, is very much an open question — and one this poll suggests a majority of his own party's voters are no longer willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on.
